It will no longer be optional and organizations had better do a good job of it. The other is building responses to the emerging scenarios as they happen or ahead of time with inflight adjustments.
Every organization should be building their own strength, weakness, opportunity and threat (SWOT) scenario under the operating plan of business as usual. Triggers for when action is needed should be identified for the steady state business and operating models. From this normal state model cascades vision, mission, strategy and tactics to optimally support the goals implied in these. Ideally plans for deepening business capabilities and generating efforts to bolster the organization advantages and challenges should also be planned and tracked.
Organizations that want – or need – to be ready for deviation from the business as usual can create several new business scenarios and spend time doing “what if “ analysis for each chosen scenario that might be likely, probable and in some cases possible. These scenarios will likely impact resource planning at a deep level.
It would be the judgement of each organization to deal with these potential scenarios as they occur or have a jump start plan on the shelf for each plausible scenario and maybe a few for outliers (aka Black Swans). Either way a capability that could link all of the key components of a response in terms of business architecture, capabilities, resources, operational processes, geographical variations, skills and guiding principles would be of extreme value. If those linked components could be viewed from a number of perspectives such as customer, partner or organizational unit, the benefit would be even greater.
Scenario planning is no longer optional, so organizations are highly encouraged to complete or refresh their plans. The level of planned responses are in the organizations control today, but that may slip from optional to mandatory with the frequency of big change occurring in markets, geographies and regulatory environments. Those organizations who employ methods, techniques and technologies in scenario will far better off under pressure or not.
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